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Trade & Tariffs

EU steel tariff quotas three months in: 50% duty, melt-and-pour proof and a looming Q1 2027 crunch

The EU's permanent steel tariff-quota regime replaced the 2019 safeguard on 1 July 2026. Since 1 October it has also required proof of where the steel was first melted and poured. This piece explains what changed, what applies now and which dates matter for contracts.

By Loharo EditorialPublished Updated 7 min read
Ladle pouring molten steel in a melt shop, two workers seen from behind
Illustration of a ladle pouring molten steel as two workers look on

Executive summary

  • Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 replaced the steel safeguard that expired on 30 June 2026. It sets 18,345,922 t of annual tariff quotas across 26 categories, managed quarterly. Imports over quota pay a 50% ad valorem duty on top of any other duties.
  • When it proposed the measure in October 2025, the Commission said the volume was a 47% cut on 2024 safeguard quotas.
  • From 1 October 2026, every covered consignment must come with proof of where the steel was melted and poured, plus its heat number. Without it, customs reject the import. Alternative documents on their own are accepted only until 30 September 2027.
  • Hot-rolled flat products (category 1A) take about 28% of the total quota. The pool open to ‘other countries’ without their own allocation is only 22,256 t a year.

Key numbers

18,345,922 t Annual tariff quota volume across 26 categories FactRegulation (EU) 2026/1384, EUR-Lex

50% Out-of-quota ad valorem duty, on top of other duties FactRegulation (EU) 2026/1384, EUR-Lex

22,256 t/yr Category 1A pool for ‘other countries’ without own allocation FactImplementing Regulation 2026/1457, EUR-Lex

+€300/t Out-of-quota duty on a coil with €600/t customs value (illustration) Calc.Loharo calculation

Fact = checked against the cited source · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures · Uncertain = reported but not confirmed. Unlabelled statements in the text are sourced facts; analysis and uncertainty are labelled inline.

What happened

The EU’s steel import regime is now permanent law, not a temporary safeguard. Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 was adopted on 17 June 2026 and published in the Official Journal on 24 June. It has applied since 1 July. In its recitals, the regulation says it replaces Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/159, the safeguard due to expire on 30 June 2026. When the Commission proposed the measure on 7 October 2025, it described the quota volume as a 47% cut on 2024 safeguard quotas and doubled the out-of-quota duty from 25% to 50%.

How the quotas work

  • Annex II sets total annual tariff quotas of 18,345,922 t across 26 product categories. The quotas are managed quarterly on a first-come, first-served basis. Allocation for each quarter stops on the 20th working day after the quarter ends (Article 3).
  • Between 1 July 2026 and 30 June 2027, any quota left unused in one quarter carries forward into the following quarter of the same quota year. From 1 July 2027, the Commission may decide category by category whether rollover continues, taking into account import surges and whether average quota use exceeds 80%.
  • The Commission can change the total by delegated act, within a range of 14.4–22.2 Mt (Article 8).
  • Imports from Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are exempt. FTA partners are covered, but they can receive country allocations from a dedicated FTA pool.

Country allocations are set by Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1457, which applies from 1 July to 31 December 2026. For category 1A (non-alloy and other alloy hot-rolled sheets and strips) the annual quota is 5,198,754 t. The largest country allocations are Türkiye (642,295 t a year, or 160,574 t a quarter), India (597,274 t), Japan (551,539 t), Ukraine (483,529 t), South Korea (461,830 t), Viet Nam (414,972 t) and Egypt (404,929 t). China has no country allocation for 1A. The residual ‘other countries’ pool for 1A is only 22,256 t a year.

Melt and pour: the new paperwork test

Article 4(1) of the regulation has applied since 1 October 2026. It requires importers to give verifiable evidence of the country where the steel was first produced in liquid form and cast into its first solid state. Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1963 of 28 August 2026 names the mill test certificate as the main evidence and states that failure to declare will ‘lead to a rejection of the import’. From 1 October 2026 to 30 September 2027, alternatives such as invoices, supplier declarations or production records can be accepted on their own, provided they show both the melt-and-pour country and the heat number. Customs guidance summarised by The International Desk notes that Irish Revenue takes deposits against the possible 50% duty. Under the regulation’s recitals, melt-and-pour information will feed into quota distribution from 1 October 2027. By 30 June 2028, the Commission must assess whether melt and pour should become the basis for quota access.

The UK and other duties

The UK took parallel action. Since 1 July 2026 it has cut tariff-free quota volumes by 51% compared with its old safeguard and applies a 50% tariff above quota. A transitional exemption for contracts signed before 14 March ended on 30 September. Trade defence duties apply in addition to the EU quotas. For example, the Commission opened an expiry review of anti-dumping duties on Turkish hot-rolled flat products in July 2026, and those duties stay in force while the review runs.

Why it matters commercially

  • Out-of-quota imports are effectively shut out. Illustration: on a coil with a customs value of €600/t, a 50% duty adds €300/t. That puts the landed cost far above current EU domestic offers of €740–760/t. Out-of-quota imports therefore make no sense for most flat products, and the quota volume acts as a hard cap.
  • Every quarter starts with a race. First-come, first-served allocation rewards cargoes declared as soon as a quota opens. SteelOrbis tracking showed Türkiye’s Q4 hot-rolled quota used up on 1 October. Contract terms on arrival windows, duty risk (CFR vs DDP) and price-adjustment clauses now matter as much as the base price.
  • Paperwork can stop a cargo. Re-rolled material made from slab or billet poured elsewhere must declare the original melt country. A missing heat number or mill test certificate can get the import rejected. Ask for mill test certificates before shipment and specify them in the contract.
  • Origins without their own allocation depend on a very small residual pool. For hot-rolled coil, that includes China. Analysisbuyers should not count on supply from origins without a dedicated allocation.

Who is affected

EU importers and tradersContract risk Quota timing, arrival windows and CFR vs DDP duty risk now matter as much as the base price.

Exporters without own allocation (incl. China)Shut out The residual 1A pool is only 22,256 t a year, so these origins cannot be relied on.

Re-rollers using third-country slab or billetPaperwork risk They must declare the original melt country; a missing heat number can get the import rejected.

EU flat-steel buyersLess leverage Out-of-quota imports make no sense for most flat products, so quota volume acts as a hard cap.

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What to watch next

  • Around 13 October: expected confirmation of Q4 FTA quota allocations (market source via SteelOrbis). Pending requests are well above the volume available.
  • 31 December 2026: Implementing Regulation 2026/1457 stops applying, so a new country distribution act is needed from 1 January 2027. The deadline for the Commission’s scope assessment under Article 12(1) is the same day.
  • 1 January 2027: Q1 quotas open. Market sources expect early exhaustion for Turkish and Indian hot-rolled coil.
  • 30 June 2027: the Commission must assess whether to extend the measure to downstream steel-containing products.
  • 1 July 2027: category-by-category rollover decisions take effect. 1 October 2027: alternative documents can no longer stand alone in place of a mill test certificate, and melt-and-pour data start to inform allocation.

Verification status: Partially verified

  • All legal provisions, quota volumes and dates were checked against the EUR-Lex texts of Regulations 2026/1384, 2026/1457 and 2026/1963 and against GOV.UK. Quota-usage figures come from SteelOrbis tracking and are attributed.
  • Key: Verified = every factual claim checked against a primary source; Partially verified = core facts confirmed, some figures from secondary/market sources; Analysis = interpretation; Developing = story still moving.

Sources

Primary sources

Supporting sources

Information as of 11 October 2026. Prices quoted from third-party assessments are attributed to the publisher that reported them; Loharo does not publish its own price assessments. This article is market intelligence, not investment or legal advice.

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By Loharo Editorial. Facts, analysis and uncertainty are labelled in line with our editorial standards. Report an error – corrections are dated and noted on the article. Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

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