CBAM Q3 price set at €82.32: what steel importers will owe for 2026 imports, and when the bill lands

What happened

The financial phase of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has applied to imports of iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity since 1 January 2026. On 5 October the Commission published the price for Q3 2026 at €82.32 per certificate (one certificate covers one tonne of CO₂e). The Q1 price was €75.36 and the Q2 price €75.28. SteelOrbis calculates that Q3 is €7.04, or 9.4%, higher than Q2.

CBAM certificate price by quarter, 2026

€ per certificate (1 tonne CO₂e)

The price is the weighted average of EU ETS auction clearing prices, calculated under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2548. In 2026 the Commission publishes one price per quarter, applied to goods imported in that quarter, whenever the certificates are bought. From 2027 it will publish prices weekly.

What importers actually have to do

Germany’s competent authority, DEHSt, sets out the cycle as follows:

• Only authorised CBAM declarants may import more than 50 t of CBAM goods (net mass, per importer, per calendar year). Below that, the de minimis exemption applies. Splitting imports to stay under the threshold without a genuine business reason can be treated as a serious infringement.
• Annual declarations are made in the CBAM registry. DEHSt says the registry should support declarations from Q4 2026. Each declaration must report volumes by installation, embedded emissions and verification reports from accredited verifiers.
• Embedded emissions can be actual verified values or the Commission’s default values (Implementing Regulation 2025/2621). Non-EU producers can share their data through the O3CI portal.
• The number of certificates is reduced to reflect the free allocation EU producers still receive. This uses CBAM benchmarks and the CBAM factor (97.5% in 2026 and 95% in 2027). It can also be reduced for any carbon price actually paid in the country of origin. DEHSt says the benchmarks will be revised for imports from 1 January 2027.
• From 2027, declarants must hold certificates covering at least 50% of the embedded emissions of their year-to-date imports at the end of each quarter.

Policy is still moving

According to EUROMETAL, the Commission’s July ETS review proposal would keep the CBAM factor at 97.5% in 2026 and 95% in 2027. It would then decline more slowly, to 91.5% in 2028, 81% in 2029 and 59% in 2030, with free allocation ending in 2038 rather than 2034. Factors from 2031 would depend on decarbonisation investment. Separately, Parliament committees are debating anti-circumvention amendments to the planned downstream extension of CBAM. One of them would apply country-level default values to origin-and-product combinations judged at high risk of abuse. These are proposals, not law.

Why it matters commercially

• The cost exists now, even though the cash goes out later. No certificate can be bought before February 2027, but each covered tonne imported in 2026 already carries a liability at the price for its quarter. Finance teams should book an accrual. Illustration only: if a tonne of imported coil has 0.5 tCO₂e of chargeable emissions after the free-allocation adjustment, the cost is €41.16 at the Q3 price, compared with €37.64 at the Q2 price. Actual figures depend on the product, the route and the data.
• Default values are the main cost risk. Default values are generally set conservatively, so a supplier that cannot give verified actual emissions makes the import more expensive. Write emissions data, verification and O3CI registration into supply contracts.
• Agree who pays CBAM. On CFR or FCA terms the EU importer of record usually carries CBAM. On DDP terms the seller must price it in. Quote CBAM as a separate, indexed line rather than folding it into the base price.
• CBAM adds to the quota regime. Out-of-quota duty, anti-dumping duty and CBAM can all apply to the same tonne. A cheap offer with default values and no quota may be the most expensive option once landed.

Who is affected

What to watch next

• Q4 2026: the CBAM registry is expected to start accepting declarations (DEHSt).
• 1 January 2027: revised CBAM benchmarks apply, and the Commission switches to weekly certificate prices.
• 4 January 2027: the Q4 2026 price is published.
• February 2027: certificate sales open on the common central platform.
• 31 March 2027: first quarter-end check of the 50% holding requirement for 2027 imports.
• 30 September 2027: the first annual declaration and surrender, covering 2026 imports, are due.
• Ongoing: Parliament and Council negotiations on the ETS/CBAM-factor proposal and on the downstream and anti-circumvention package.

Sources

Primary sources

• Price of CBAM certificates — European Commission, DG Taxation and Customs Union, Q3 price published 5 October 2026
• CBAM Definitive Regime from 01/01/2026 — German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt), Last updated 19 March 2026

Supporting sources

• EU CBAM certificate price rises to €82.32 for Q3 2026 — SteelOrbis, 6 October 2026
• Proposed 'CBAM factor' relaxation maintains import risk — EUROMETAL, 3 August 2026

Information as of 11 October 2026. Prices quoted from third-party assessments are attributed to the publisher that reported them; Loharo does not publish its own price assessments. This article is market intelligence, not investment or legal advice.