Executive summary
- World crude steel production was 144.2 Mt in August 2026, down 1.2% year on year. January–August output was 1,225.2 Mt, down 0.7% (worldsteel, 70 reporting countries).
- China produced 74.6 Mt (−3.7%) in August and 651.9 Mt (−3.1%) year to date. By Loharo’s calculation, output outside China is up about 2.2% year to date.
- India rose 4.6% in August and 6.0% year to date, to 115.9 Mt. North America is up 5.2% year to date and Viet Nam up 29.1%.
- The EU-27 made 8.9 Mt (−1.0%) in August, and its year-to-date output is roughly flat at 84.5 Mt (−0.3%). Middle East output is down 7.8% year to date.
Key numbers
144.2 Mt World crude steel output, Aug 2026 (−1.2% y/y) Factworldsteel
74.6 Mt China output, Aug 2026 (−3.7% y/y) Factworldsteel
≈+2.2% Output outside China, Jan–Aug, year on year Calc.Loharo, from worldsteel figures
+29.1% Viet Nam output, Jan–Aug, year on year Factworldsteel
Fact = checked against the cited source · Calc. = Loharo calculation from cited figures · Uncertain = reported but not confirmed. Unlabelled statements in the text are sourced facts; analysis and uncertainty are labelled inline.
What happened
The World Steel Association’s August 2026 release of 24 September shows global crude steel output still falling slightly. The 70 reporting countries, which made about 98% of world output in 2025, produced 144.2 Mt in August. That is 1.2% less than in August 2025. Year-to-date output of 1,225.2 Mt is 0.7% below the same period of 2025.
| Region / country | Aug 2026 (Mt) | y/y | Jan–Aug 2026 (Mt) | y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World (70 countries) | 144.2 | −1.2% | 1,225.2 | −0.7% |
| China | 74.6 | −3.7% | 651.9 | −3.1% |
| India | 14.8 | +4.6% | 115.9 | +6.0% |
| United States (est.) | 7.3 | +3.0% | 57.5 | +5.5% |
| Japan | 6.7 | +0.4% | 54.0 | −0.2% |
| Russia (est.) | 5.5 | −0.3% | 43.8 | −5.1% |
| South Korea | 5.4 | +2.6% | 42.8 | +2.8% |
| Türkiye | 3.4 | −0.4% | 26.6 | +6.8% |
| Germany | 2.6 | +1.7% | 23.9 | +6.3% |
| Viet Nam | 2.7 | +36.4% | 20.6 | +29.1% |
| EU (27) | 8.9 | −1.0% | 84.5 | −0.3% |
| Middle East | 3.7 | −4.6% | 33.3 | −7.8% |
| Russia & other CIS + Ukraine | 6.3 | −5.6% | 52.0 | −5.7% |
China accounted for 51.7% of August output and 53.2% of year-to-date output. Outside China, year-to-date production was 573.3 Mt. Using worldsteel’s rounded totals and growth rates, Loharo estimates this is about 2.2% higher than a year earlier. The two trends are diverging: Beijing has reaffirmed capacity curbs for 2026 under its ‘anti-involution’ campaign, while capacity keeps growing in India, South-East Asia and North America.
A note on the data: worldsteel’s figures for the United States and Russia are estimates, and monthly national data can be revised in later releases. Treat single-month changes with caution and give more weight to year-to-date trends. Europe’s numbers hide differences between countries. EU-27 output is roughly flat year to date, but Germany is up 6.3% and the Middle East is down sharply. In April, worldsteel’s Short Range Outlook had already warned that the Middle East conflict would ‘result in a sharp drop in that region’s steel demand for 2026’.
Why it matters commercially
- Lower Chinese output has not meant lower Chinese exports. China’s crude output is down 3.1% year to date, yet its exports have been above 10 Mt a month since May, according to China’s customs data as reported by CISA. Analysisweak domestic demand is still pushing Chinese tonnage abroad, so output cuts alone will not ease price pressure in export markets.
- Asia’s new suppliers are growing fast. Viet Nam’s 29.1% year-to-date rise and India’s 6.0% add flat-product supply that competes for the same tight EU quota pools. For EU buyers, more origins chase fewer tariff-free tonnes, which strengthens the hand of whoever holds quota.
- North America is producing more behind its tariff wall. US output is up an estimated 5.5% year to date under Section 232 tariffs of 10%–50%. US domestic buyers have a well-supplied home market, while Canada’s mills face export losses.
- Within Europe, output is shifting towards Germany. By Loharo’s calculation from worldsteel’s rounded figures, EU output excluding Germany was about 60.6 Mt in January–August, roughly 2.7% lower than a year earlier, while German output rose 6.3%. AnalysisSouthern and Central European supply looks weaker, and the Taranto halt in October will add to that. Buyers in those regions may rely more on German, Benelux and Nordic mills, which means longer delivery routes and higher freight costs while Rhine water is low.
- Supply in the Middle East and CIS is shrinking. Lower output in these regions cuts billet and semi-finished availability, which matters for re-rollers in Türkiye, the Mediterranean and North Africa.
Who is affected
Buyers in open export marketsPrice pressure Lower Chinese output has not cut Chinese exports, which stay above 10 Mt a month.
EU buyersQuota competition Fast growth in Viet Nam and India adds origins chasing the same tight EU quota pools.
US buyers and Canadian millsMixed US output is up behind Section 232 tariffs; Canada’s mills face export losses.
Southern and Central European buyersLonger routes Output is shifting towards Germany, meaning longer delivery routes and higher freight while Rhine water is low.
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What to watch next
- Mid-October: China’s National Bureau of Statistics September output figures and customs export data, the first signs of whether autumn production controls are working.
- Late October: worldsteel’s September 2026 crude steel release. The August data came out on 24 September, so the next release should be about a month later.
- October: worldsteel’s autumn Short Range Outlook, if it follows the usual timetable (last year’s appeared in October 2025). It will likely revise the April forecast of 0.3% global demand growth in 2026.
Verification status: Partially verified
- All production figures were checked against the worldsteel press release of 24 September 2026. China’s share and the growth rate outside China are Loharo calculations from rounded published figures and may differ slightly from unrounded data.
- Key: Verified = every factual claim checked against a primary source; Partially verified = core facts confirmed, some figures from secondary/market sources; Analysis = interpretation; Developing = story still moving.
Sources
Primary sources
- August 2026 crude steel production — World Steel Association (worldsteel), 24 September 2026
- worldsteel Short Range Outlook April 2026 — World Steel Association (worldsteel), 14 April 2026
- Active Presidential Tariff Actions in 2026: Fact Sheet (R49481) — Congressional Research Service (via EveryCRSReport), 8 October 2026
Supporting sources
- China to curb steel capacity in 2026, says NDRC in approved plan — Mysteel, 16 March 2026
- China Steel Association: In August, China's steel exports of 10.155 million tons increased 6.8% year-on-year — Zhitong Finance via Webull, reporting CISA monthly trade report, 29 September 2026
Information as of 11 October 2026. Prices quoted from third-party assessments are attributed to the publisher that reported them; Loharo does not publish its own price assessments. This article is market intelligence, not investment or legal advice.
