European HRC holds at €740–760/t as quota exhaustion shuts the cheap import window

What happened

European hot-rolled coil prices were broadly unchanged in the week to 9 October, with mills trying to push prices up for December production. Fastmarkets’ daily index, as published by EUROMETAL, put Northern European HRC at €746.88/t ex-works on 7 October, up €1.88 on the day and stable week on week. The Italian index fell €3.75 to €741.25/t, even though supply there is tight. A Benelux buyer called €730/t ex-works ‘still possible to achieve’, against mill offers of €740–750/t, while another buyer reported an offer at €760/t.

Northern European and Italian HRC since the quota regime began

Fastmarkets domestic HRC index, ex-works, € per tonne

8 Jul 20267 Oct 2026

Other assessments tell a similar story. SteelOrbis reported Northern European levels of €740–760/t ex-works, with some offers at €770/t and workable prices at the low end of that range. It put Italy at €740–750/t and Spain at €740–745/t. SMM’s weekly review put North-West European HRC at €731/t ex-works (+€2 week on week) and Italy at €734/t (−€4), cutting the north–south spread to €3/t. SMM also reported that a German integrated mill had temporarily pulled out of the spot market, and that a 1,000 t Italian deal was done at €750/t delivered.

Imports: quota, not price, sets the limit

In early July, before the new regime had settled, Turkish HRC was booked at €565/t CFR Italy, when Fastmarkets’ Southern Europe import assessment was €565–610/t CFR. On 6 October, Fastmarkets sources quoted Taiwanese material at about €765/t DDP, Japanese at about €760/t DDP and Turkish HRC at €560–580/t CFR. SteelOrbis put import CFR offers at €635–670/t, with Turkish coil at about €635/t CFR duty-paid, and Asian DDP offers at €760–780/t. Buyers’ price ideas were €600–620/t CFR, and little business was done. The two sources use different bases (duty-paid vs not), so their figures should not be compared directly.

Quota is now the main constraint. Under Implementing Regulation 2026/1457, Türkiye’s quarterly allocation for category 1A is 160,574 t and India’s is 149,319 t. SteelOrbis tracking showed Türkiye’s Q4 quota used up on 1 October. India had 19,126 t left, with 23,628 t awaiting allocation, and SMM reported India’s quota fully used up on 8 October. Pending requests for the FTA pool reached 194,001 t against 120,920 t available.

UncertainSMM also reported that buyers were withdrawing clearance applications for Turkish coil because they expected provisional anti-dumping duties of about 15%. Loharo could not verify any official notice of new provisional duties. The EU’s existing anti-dumping duties on Turkish hot-rolled flat products are under an expiry review opened in July 2026 and remain in force during that review. Treat the 15% figure as market talk.

Why it matters commercially

• Imports are no longer cheaper than domestic coil. Asian DDP offers of €760–780/t are at or above domestic ex-works prices. Analysisbuyers lose their usual leverage, and in Q4 negotiations domestic mills will mainly be competing with each other.
• Q1 2027 is the next pressure point. Sources quoted by SteelOrbis say large Turkish and Indian volumes are already sold for Q1 arrival. When quotas reopen on 1 January, those cargoes are likely to use them up within days. Anything left over would face the 50% duty. Expect mills to try a January increase.
• Supply risk is mostly to the upside. Taranto’s hot end has stopped, and Rhine logistics are constrained. Either could support offers at short notice. The downside comes from weak construction demand and a mixed picture in automotive.
• Practical step: service centres and OEM buyers should spread volumes across mills, lock in December and January tonnage at workable levels where possible, and write quota and duty clauses into import contracts.

Who is affected

What to watch next

• Around 13 October: expected confirmation of Q4 FTA quota allocations.
• 20 October: Italy’s Court of Cassation hearing on Taranto. A lasting shutdown would remove an important Italian flat-steel supplier.
• Late October–November: whether mills achieve December and January price targets, or whether service-centre destocking pushes prices back to €720–730/t.
• 1 January 2027: Q1 quotas open. Watch how fast the Turkish, Indian and FTA pools are used up.

Sources

Primary sources

• Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1457 on the distribution of tariff quotas opened under Regulation (EU) 2026/1384 — Official Journal of the EU (EUR-Lex), June 2026

Supporting sources

• Northern European HRC rises slightly on higher mill offers; Italian prices decline despite tight supply — EUROMETAL / Fastmarkets, 8 October 2026
• European HRC suppliers push for higher prices; Southern buyers follow, resistance persists in the North — EUROMETAL / Fastmarkets, 7 October 2026
• EU HRC prices remain stable, import buyers still cautious — EUROMETAL / SteelOrbis, 9 October 2026
• European domestic HRC prices increase as mills push September offers after quota changes — EUROMETAL / Fastmarkets, 9 July 2026
• SMM Europe Weekly Review: North-South HRC spread narrows to 3 EUR; imports squeezed by quotas and anti-dumping rules — Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), 9 October 2026
• EU reviews Turkish HR flat steel AD duties — EUROMETAL / Kallanish, 8 July 2026

Information as of 11 October 2026. Prices quoted from third-party assessments are attributed to the publisher that reported them; Loharo does not publish its own price assessments. This article is market intelligence, not investment or legal advice.